NFL playoff picture: AFC

Week 12 brought us three exciting Thanksgiving Day games with plenty more thrills and spills when the rest of the league took to the field later on in the week. This week’s games only muddied the AFC playoff picture. As for the NFC, well, Thursday Night Football sees the Saints and the Falcons go head-to-head in an NFC South clash, which has playoff ramifications to go along with bragging rights. For now we are going to take a look at how things currently stand in the American Football Conference with an overview of each division, and see who has the best chance of reaching the playoffs.

Divisional leaders

The AFC’s leaders are the Patriots, Ravens, Texans and Broncos. All of which are pretty much guaranteed a spot in the playoffs, but they still have seeding to battle it out for with the top two seeds earning a bye week when the playoffs begin.

The Patriots currently hold the third seed, with their win over the Broncos earlier in the season being the tie-breaker, but if the Broncos were to beat the Ravens when they meet up and in theory all three hold the same record, then the tie-break would get complicated as it was the Ravens who beat the Patriots earlier in the season.

As well as that, the Patriots and the Texans still have a match-up against each other to worry about, and both have divisional rivals hunting for wildcard spots. These four teams will be the top four seeded teams come the end of the regular season, but with potential tie-breaker chaos and some crunch games coming down the stretch, it’s anyone’s call as to who will earn home field advantage as well as the byes.

The wildcard hunt

In the South we have the Colts who still have to play the Texans twice. Indianapolis wants to confirm its place in the post-season as soon as possible, and potentially if they put on a late run of wins they could dethrone the Texans in the South, but a lot would need to go their way.

The East sees the Dolphins take on their divisional leaders twice when they face the Patriots in week 13, as Miami hopes to get back to .500. Their chances of reaching the post-season are not as likely as the Colts, especially as they’ll lose the tie-break to them if it comes down to it following their defeat to Indianapolis earlier in the season.

The other two AFC East teams are the Bills and Jets who are both 4-7, and would both appear to be out of the playoff picture. For the Bills all are in agreement, but some believe the Jets could sneak in if they manage to win at least four of their next five. The only way that this could even be a possibility is if Tebow Time happens, and he produces the god-like form – no pun intended – that he did for Denver last season. So in other words, the Jets need a miracle.

In the other two divisions all is very different, as the West has no potential wildcard teams in the division. It is safe to say that the likes of the Chargers and the Raiders won’t make a late surge as they’ve been shooting themselves in the foot all season.  Meanwhile, in the AFC North an injury to Steelers quarter-back Big Roethlisberger shook the division up.

Pittsburgh looks mediocre without its franchise QB, especially after the week 12 defeat to the Browns. Their rivals, the Bengals, have crept up to a 6-5 record to match the Steelers, and look like they could snatch the final wildcard spot. With Pittsburgh facing the Ravens next potentially come the end of week 13, the Steelers will be out of the playoffs at that point in time.

Looking ahead

Steelers – Ravens: This game is as crucial for Baltimore as it is for their rivals. Whether Big Ben returns as quarter-back or not for the Steelers, it will be the Ravens who come out on top in this one as they hang on to the No. 2 seed for another week.

Patriots – Dolphins: The Dolphins will give it their all, but this mountain is probably too high for Miami. It has the potential to be close, as even the Jets and the Bills have had games that have gone to the wire with New England this season, but the Patriots know how to win games. With the Patriots currently on a streak of five wins in a row, they’re hitting their second half of the regular season form with both defence and offence taking care of the ball, so they’ll wrap up another win in week 13 and move on to 9-3.

Bengals – Chargers: Some people have the Chargers down as a team who could still make a late sprint into a wildcard spot, but as most people know, this San Diego team is no playoff squad. With the Bengals having to endure a rugged schedule in the next few weeks, it makes this game even more of a must-win if they are to have a shot at making the playoffs. Tough call, but Cincinnati should edge it.

Buccaneers – Broncos: Despite a setback last week, this 6-5 Tampa Bay team could still make the post-season, but they go on the road against Peyton Manning and co. A Denver win keeps their second-seed dreams alive and Peyton knows how to get a job done. So no matter how close this potentially could be for the Broncos, they’ll win and go on to 9-3.

Colts – Lions: With the madness going on in the NFC in regards to the playoff picture, the Lions will be disappointed that their young talented team couldn’t go from good to great this season. They may also be envious of Andrew Luck and the Colts who, with a win, would create significant clarity in the AFC playoff picture with the wildcard spot firmly in their grasp. Matthew Stafford and co are not going to go down without a fight though. With both young quarter-back’s knowing how to pull off a 4^th quarter comeback, we see this going down to a game-winning drive by either one of the two; you heard it here first.

And looking even further ahead…

Come the end of the regular season, all of the current leaders in the AFC will win their respective divisions. Personally, we feel one of the Ravens or the Texans will lose their current bye week seeding, but we’re going to try and let our head rule our heart over the following decision:

Seed 1: Houston Texans 14-2

Seed 2: New England Patriots 13-3

Seed 3: Denver Broncos 13-3

Seed 4: Baltimore Ravens 12-4

The Texans have played good football all year; they’ll hold on to home advantage and the number one seed. They’ll lose two games maximum of their remaining five, but more importantly for the Texans if they do take the first seed, they need to know that no first seed in a conference has gone on to win the Super Bowl since the 2003 Patriots. So Houston fans, hold your horses.

We would have rather put the Pats, Broncos and Ravens all at 12-4 or all at 13-3, but we doubt all three will finish with the same record. With that being said, regardless of what happens there’s going to be a tie-breaker headache, and there’ll be a tie-breaker between the two of the three, or all of them, come the climax of the regular season. 

Let’s assume for a second that New England and Denver sweep their schedules and finish 13-3 and the Ravens win four of their remaining five. With the one loss coming against Denver, it will be the Patriots who would win the tie-breaker, meaning they’ll take the second seed and the bye week based off a better AFC record (11-1) than the Ravens (10-2) and Broncos (10-2). 

Tom Brady knows how to get it done at this stage of the season, and Bill Belichick’s men are 16-0. If you combine the second half of the seasons over the past two years, 17 now following their week 12 win. The same can be said for Peyton Manning; he and Brady are both future hall of famers and have been in this position, so both Denver and New England will finish the season strongly.

Overall, we’re going with the Patriots and the Texans getting that pass into the divisional round. Baltimore’s injuries on defence will take their toll resulting in a defeat to, say, Denver; that will open up the race for the second seed which we fancy New England to end up taking.

As for the wildcard spots, well, Andrew Luck has had a great year for the Colts, and despite whatever is thrown at them Indianapolis seem to find a way through, so they’ll take the fifth seed for the playoffs. The sixth seed is the tougher call; usually the Steelers have the know-how and resilience to win games, but the young Bengals have found a way to get back in the playoff picture. 

Honestly, it will come down to the week 16 match-up between the two, as no other AFC team has the capability of putting a run together to challenge for that last wildcard spot. Pittsburgh’s defence can keep them in games until Big Ben returns, but regardless of that we think it will be the Bengals who enjoy a fairy-tale of their own by also reaching the playoffs.

One thing’s for sure, it is going to be a very exciting end to the season as the playoff chase is now definitely in full swing!

Skye Pank, NFL correspondent

AFC current standings

AFC EAST	W	L	T	PCT
New England Patriots	8	3	0	.727
Miami Dolphins	5	6	0	.455
New York Jets	4	7	0	.364
Buffalo Bills	4	7	0	.364
AFC NORTH	W	L	T	PCT
Baltimore Ravens	9	2	0	.818
Pittsburgh Steelers	6	5	0	.545
Cincinnati Bengals	6	5	0	.545
Cleveland Browns	3	8	0	.273
AFC SOUTH	W	L	T	PCT
Houston Texans	10	1	0	.909
Indianapolis Colts	7	4	0	.636
Tennessee Titans	4	7	0	.364
Jacksonville Jaguars	2	9	0	.182
AFC WEST	W	L	T	PCT
Denver Broncos	8	3	0	.727
San Diego Chargers	4	7	0	.364
Oakland Raiders	3	8	0	.273
Kansas City Chiefs	1	10	0	.091